1280 Meadow Crossing Dr

Gonzales, LA 70737

$249,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,971/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?