4460 S Poplar #204 St

Casper, WY 82604

$135,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 23,868 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$312
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-164/mo
• Annual: $-1,965/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (17.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in WY, #2,629 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 35 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Casper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?