158 Callahan Rd

Canfield, OH 44406

$289,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-752/mo
• Annual: $-9,018/yr
• Cap rate: 3.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.11%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (45.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (49.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#25 in OH, #228 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Canfield Local (suburban): math 84% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #38 of 656 in OH (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.4% in Canfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.