14473 Hwy 31 E

New Chapel Hill, TX 75705

$250,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,598 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-190/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jackson El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 417 students, 92% FRL); Chapel Hill J H (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 77% FRL); Chapel Hill H S (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,063 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.