100 Litchfield Ln

Houston, TX 77024

$259,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,814 sqft · Built 1977 · Townhouse · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$699
• HOA: −$665
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-456/mo
• Annual: $-5,466/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (31.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $259k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?