3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,360 sqft ·
Built 1912
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,496/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$745
Tax + insurance
−$171
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$314
Net cashflow
$266/mo
Annual
$3,192/yr
Cap rate
8.54%
Cash-on-cash
8.03%
DSCR
1.36
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$39,760
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $142k).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($982 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Pleasants Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 540 students, 102% FRL); Petersburg High (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 1,080 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $77k; list at $142k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AY06958F1WC2HS
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29