3285 4th St

Twin Lake, MI 49457

$169,900D

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 325 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,558/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#307 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Reeths-Puffer Schools (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #254 of 540 in MI (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 13 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.3% in Twin Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.