8 bd · 16.0 ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,854/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$213
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$389
Net cashflow
$885/mo
Annual
$10,620/yr
Cap rate
21.46%
Cash-on-cash
54.18%
DSCR
3.41
1% rule
2.65%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 8-bed/16.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#623 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 7.0% in Granite City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AYJQPYBT84TPSW
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29