Birch Plan

Zachary, LA 70791

$226,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 322 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,373/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $69,690

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zachary Community School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 98 in LA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rollins Place Elementary (847 students, 60% FRL); Northwestern Middle School (math 41% / reading 68%, grade B-, #17 of 218 statewide, top 8%, 912 students, 56% FRL); Zachary High School (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #15 of 265 statewide, top 6%, 1,765 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 38% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.