66 O Connell Ave

Buffalo, NY 14204

$205,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,365 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $425/mo
• Annual: $5,097/yr
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath land listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $205k implies a 2829% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,415/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.