4731 Brookston St

Houston, TX 77045

$178,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,664/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,638/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $49,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grissom El (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 467 students, 95% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?