7378 Charles Loring Jr Rd

Panama City, FL 32404

$248,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$78
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-613/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $69,692

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-613/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Point Elementary School (math 55% / reading 49%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 705 students, 55% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1200 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?