1210 Oregon St

Bakersfield, CA 93305

$449,999D

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,046 sqft · Built 1954 · MultiFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$924
• Net cashflow: $368/mo
• Annual: $4,413/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $450k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $92/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $440k (2.2% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $450k implies a 477% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,402/mo this rent would consume 122% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 2376% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding and paint show significant wear and tear, with peeling paint and discoloration.
• Major: flooring — The flooring in the common areas appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with some discoloration and potential damage.
• Major: HVAC and mechanical systems — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition, with visible signs of wear and tear.