2189 Mellwood Ave

Toledo, OH 43613

$84,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 852 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $96/mo
• Annual: $1,149/yr
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $23,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($872 rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Washington Local (urban): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #528 of 656 in OH (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Creek Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,087 of 1,584 statewide, top 70%, 653 students, 0% FRL); Whitmer High School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 2,247 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.