29352 Roads End

McArthur, CA 96056

$175,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $16/mo
• Annual: $191/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($191/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#962 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, schools B, health & safety B; Watch: housing D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.