Falkner III A Plan

Sterlington, LA 71280

$318,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,936
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-580/mo
• Annual: $-6,962/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $103,366

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-580 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#60 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sterlington Elementary School (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B-, #62 of 646 statewide, top 10%, 820 students, 45% FRL); Sterlington Middle School (math 50% / reading 58%, grade B-, #19 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 423 students, 48% FRL); Sterlington High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #58 of 265 statewide, top 23%, 539 students, 41% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ouachita Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.