20 Crooked Trl

Witches Woods, CT 06281

$425,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $6/mo
• Annual: $68/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($68/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Woodstock School District (rural): math 32% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #89 of 153 in CT (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 13 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $425k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.