4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,421 sqft ·
Built 2002
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,508/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,625
Tax + insurance
−$397
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$527
Net cashflow
$-41/mo
Annual
$-492/yr
Cap rate
6.13%
Cash-on-cash
-0.57%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$86,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-492/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (2.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $251k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#57 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $260k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B2H5FB5MXGH6YD
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29