1845 El Mar Ln

Seabrook, TX 77586

$165,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$944
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $407/mo
• Annual: $4,885/yr
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.65%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#359 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seabrook Int (math 53% / reading 57%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 963 students, 30% FRL); Clear Falls H S (math 49% / reading 64%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,473 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $165k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.2% in Seabrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.