498 Bird Ave

Birmingham, MI 48009

$410,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,371/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$591
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-940/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-940/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $337k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#12 in MI, #200 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Birmingham Public Schools (suburban): math 58% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #18 of 540 in MI (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 32% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $410k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.5% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.