209 10th St

Fowler, CO 81039

$109,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $84/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($84/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#66 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Fowler School District No. R4J (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #80 of 176 in CO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.