414 Swaying Pines Drive Dr

Gatlinburg, TN 37876

$574,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-1,721/mo
• Annual: $-20,651/yr
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.83%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $160,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (52.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (61.5% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (61.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.3% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,215/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 611% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?