3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,560 sqft ·
Built 2020
· Townhouse
· Active
· 316 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,855/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,096
Tax + insurance
−$411
HOA
−$89
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$-130/mo
Annual
$-1,559/yr
Cap rate
5.55%
Cash-on-cash
-2.66%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$58,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (11.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (11.2% below list).
It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Amana Academy School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 731 students, 30% FRL, charter); Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in South Fulton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,855/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 27% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B460TT09MWES2H
· Data 1 month agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29