25356 Pine Knob Dr

Cleveland, TX 77328

$105,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $377/mo
• Annual: $4,525/yr
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.39%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.