2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
516 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,140/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$239
Net cashflow
$590/mo
Annual
$7,075/yr
Cap rate
22.01%
Cash-on-cash
56.15%
DSCR
3.50
1% rule
2.53%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#418 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
Lodi School District (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #226 of 342 in WI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Lodi Primary (395 students, 12% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #282 of 383 statewide, top 76%, 335 students, 19% FRL); Lodi High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #36 of 483 statewide, top 9%, 451 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 219 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Columbia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 0.2% in Lake Wisconsin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— Paint appears chipped and faded in some areas
Minor: Flooring
— Carpet appears worn in some areas
Minor: Windows
— Curtains are present but may need cleaning
CashFlowRE · CFR-B49VYH9R9D38G3
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29