81 Lane Ave

Caldwell, NJ 07006-7420

$1,090,000F

9 bd · 3.9 ba · 2,120 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,716
• Tax + insurance: −$1,526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-6,149/mo
• Annual: $-73,793/yr
• Cap rate: -0.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.18%
• DSCR: -0.08
• 1% rule: 0.13%
• Cash to close: $305,200

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/3.9-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-74k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (85.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (87.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $138k (87.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#208 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Caldwell-West Caldwell School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #150 of 472 in NJ (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $232k; list at $1.09M implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.