Poplar Plan

Franklin, VA 23851

$199,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 574 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,683/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,194
• Tax + insurance: −$380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,932/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $63,763

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 574 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#461 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin City Public School District (town): math 23% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 131 in VA (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S.P. Morton Elementary (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 481 students, 101% FRL); Joseph P. King Jr. Middle (math 23% / reading 53%, grade F, #313 of 342 statewide, top 92%, 164 students, 99% FRL); Franklin High (math 37% / reading 82%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 378 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Franklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 574 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.