5156 Cardinal Ridge Way

Wendell, NC 27591

$382,075F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,433 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,004
• Tax + insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-445/mo
• Annual: $-5,335/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $106,981

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $382k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-445 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#25 in NC, #2,391 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wakelon Elementary (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,410 statewide, top 83%, 578 students, 72% FRL); Zebulon Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 708 students, 68% FRL); East Wake High (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #331 of 535 statewide, top 62%, 1,646 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 30% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 827 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wendell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.