None

Johnson City, TN 37604

$799,000C

None bd · 8.0 ba · 5,091 sqft · Built 1913 · MultiFamily · Pending · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,738
• Net cashflow: $1,744/mo
• Annual: $20,932/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4×1bd/1ba + 4×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $218/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $799k).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,276/mo this rent would consume 190% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2254% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.