4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
2,058 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Townhouse
· Active
· 293 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$8,495/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,564
Tax + insurance
−$815
HOA
−$601
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,784
Net cashflow
$2,731/mo
Annual
$32,768/yr
Cap rate
12.99%
Cash-on-cash
23.93%
DSCR
2.06
1% rule
1.74%
Cash to close
$136,920
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $489k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $489k).
It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($430k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $430k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#964 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #517 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.4% in Windham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B4VC3N1DME5TCR
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29