2172 Blake St

Berkeley, CA 94704

$2,700,000B-

18 bd · 10.0 ba · 6,902 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,159
• Tax + insurance: −$2,850
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,501
• Net cashflow: $7,446/mo
• Annual: $89,358/yr
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.82%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $756,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×1bd/1ba + 8×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $2.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($89k/yr) — positive. Per door: $745/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $2.70M).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.66M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $756k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$162k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $30,956/mo this rent would consume 741% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 3047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.