928 Welch St SW

Atlanta, GA 30310

$130,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $772/mo
• Annual: $9,266/yr
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.46%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in GA, #919 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-.
• Atlanta Public Schools (urban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #80 of 174 in GA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.1% in Atlanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,193/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1676% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.