2404 Falcon Pl

Hoover, AL 35216

$141,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$480
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-306/mo
• Annual: $-3,672/yr
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.30%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $39,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $141k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in AL, #630 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.4% in Hoover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?