151/155 Mill Brook Rd Unit 42 S 0

Thornton, NH 03285

$575,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$863
• Net cashflow: $-728/mo
• Annual: $-8,734/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $470k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($558k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $411k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thornton Central School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #33 of 263 statewide, top 15%, 185 students, 25% FRL); Plymouth Regional High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #37 of 90 statewide, top 49%, 646 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.