3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,266 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 63 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,462/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,177
Tax + insurance
−$374
HOA
−$118
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$-514/mo
Annual
$-6,166/yr
Cap rate
3.54%
Cash-on-cash
-9.82%
DSCR
0.56
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$62,817
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (12.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (15.0% below list).
It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#693 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Wharton ISD (town): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #651 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Wharton El (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 476 students, 77% FRL); Wharton J H (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 369 students, 77% FRL); Wharton H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 74% FRL).
Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B5ME6FDFXTD8PE
· Data 22 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29