336 Dover Church Rd

Star, NC 27356

$169,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-780/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-780/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#479 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Montgomery County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #143 of 178 in NC (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.