4322 S Atlantic Ave

Ponce Inlet, FL 32127

$405,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,087/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-190/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $402k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. J. Longstreet Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 359 students, 60% FRL); Silver Sands Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,165 students, 54% FRL); Spruce Creek High School (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,569 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $405k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,087/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 812% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.