42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #55206

Anthem, AZ 85086

$298,999F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 278 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-902/mo
• Annual: $-10,820/yr
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.92%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-902 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (43.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#98 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canyon Springs Stem Academy (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B, #121 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 801 students, 19% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $299k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.4% in Anthem — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?