9749 134th Ave NE

Cavalier, ND 58220

$70,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1977 · Other · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $491/mo
• Annual: $5,890/yr
• Cap rate: 14.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.05%
• DSCR: 2.34
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cavalier Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 220 students, 26% FRL); Cavalier High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #9 of 144 statewide, top 8%, 192 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.