5444 Varnum St

Bladensburg, MD 20710

$374,500D

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,964
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-351/mo
• Annual: $-4,218/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $104,860

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $374k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#277 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, amenities D.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Port Towns Elementary (math 2% / reading 10%, grade F, #750 of 860 statewide, top 88%, 955 students, 90% FRL); William Wirt Middle (math 2% / reading 14%, grade F, #215 of 225 statewide, top 96%, 1,246 students, 94% FRL); Bladensburg High (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #170 of 222 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 53% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $268k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,988/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 810% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?