5 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,102 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 120 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,302/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$314
Tax + insurance
−$155
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$559/mo
Annual
$6,710/yr
Cap rate
17.50%
Cash-on-cash
40.01%
DSCR
2.78
1% rule
2.17%
Cash to close
$16,772
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#785 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
BentonConsolidatedHsd 103 (town): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #727 of 919 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Benton Grade Sch K-4 (math 18% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,024 of 2,056 statewide, top 50%, 617 students, 0% FRL); Benton Grade Sch 5-8 (math 16% / reading 18%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 458 students, 0% FRL); Benton Cons High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 577 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Franklin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 5.4% in Benton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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