12 bd · 11.2 ba ·
2,138 sqft ·
Built 1965
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 88 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,132/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$698
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$868
Net cashflow
$1,255/mo
Annual
$15,064/yr
Cap rate
14.37%
Cash-on-cash
28.83%
DSCR
2.28
1% rule
1.65%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 4 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $314/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $175k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,132/mo this rent would consume 107% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1355% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
CashFlowRE · CFR-B82H147F4ZHA6C
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29