538 N Pershing Ave

York, PA 17404

$162,400D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Built 1910 · Townhouse · Active · 299 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,437/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$852
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $122/mo
• Annual: $1,461/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $45,472

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ferguson Sch (math 0% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,494 of 1,518 statewide, top 98%, 640 students, 100% FRL); Edgar Fahs Smith Steam Academy (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #432 of 512 statewide, top 85%, 240 students, 100% FRL); William Penn Shs (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #407 of 437 statewide, top 94%, 1,534 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $162k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.