148 Flanders Rd

Mystic, CT 06378

$449,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$501
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,529/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $335k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Stonington School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #43 of 153 in CT (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Deans Mill School (math 72% / reading 74%, grade A, #58 of 553 statewide, top 11%, 451 students, 12% FRL); Stonington High School (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #40 of 194 statewide, top 21%, 585 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $365k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.0% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?