3015 S Willowood Ln

Beaumont, TX 77703

$74,900A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,781 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $539/mo
• Annual: $6,472/yr
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.86%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Mae E Jones-Clark El (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #4,298 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 569 students, 97% FRL, charter); Smith Middle (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,659 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 475 students, 90% FRL, charter); Beaumont United H S (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,554 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 2,131 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 69% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,543/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight imperfections visible
• Minor: Bathroom tub and shower — Slight imperfections visible
• Major: Flooring — Flooring removed, no flooring present