4502 Adams Ct #4502

Lionville, PA 19425

$389,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$560
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-513/mo
• Annual: $-6,156/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (25.6% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $289k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#180 in PA, #1,494 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D, commute F.
• Downingtown Area SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #9 of 539 in PA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lionville El Sch (math 63% / reading 81%, grade A-, #123 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 652 students, 15% FRL); Marsh Creek Sixth Grade Center (math 53% / reading 83%, grade A-, #15 of 512 statewide, top 3%, 1,046 students, 13% FRL); Downingtown Hs East Campus (math 80%, 1,702 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,513 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Lionville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($212k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.