4131 York Ln

Jackson, MI 49201

$27,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax + insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$725
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $149/mo
• Annual: $1,793/yr
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.72%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 4.86%
• Cash to close: $7,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $27k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $27k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $187 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $810 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#197 in MI, #4,970 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, employment F.
• Northwest Community Schools (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 55% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.4% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.