2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
952 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$770/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$225
Tax + insurance
−$103
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$162
Net cashflow
$280/mo
Annual
$3,365/yr
Cap rate
14.14%
Cash-on-cash
28.01%
DSCR
2.25
1% rule
1.79%
Cash to close
$12,012
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($770 rent vs $43k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($297 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
Bangs ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #178 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: J B Stephens El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 418 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 50% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.1% in Bangs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Kitchen cabinets
— Dirty and in need of cleaning
Major: Bathroom cabinets
— Dirty and in need of cleaning