753 Yorktown Rd

Poquoson, VA 23662

$425,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,229 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-418/mo
• Annual: $-5,016/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (31.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $291k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Poquoson City Public School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 91% proficiency, ranked #2 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poquoson Primary (470 students, 33% FRL); Poquoson Middle (math 79% / reading 87%, grade A+, #17 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 451 students, 23% FRL); Poquoson High (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 690 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 133 units permitted in Poquoson city in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Poquoson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Poquoson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.