3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,352 sqft ·
Built 1999
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 102 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,205/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$123
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$253
Net cashflow
$96/mo
Annual
$1,150/yr
Cap rate
7.12%
Cash-on-cash
2.94%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (13.8% below list).
It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $55k; list at $140k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BAZBGG63XPRV7K
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29